5.2 Million People Set To Participate in the Great Southern ShakeOut Earthquake Drill

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November 13, 2008

Southern California is 150 years overdue for a massive earthquake. Historically, the San Andreas Fault has had a large magnitude earthquake every 150 years; however, it has been 300 years since the last major earthquake occurred on this fault line. Because of this, the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), California Office of Emergency Services, California Seismic Safety Commission, City of Los Angeles, Art Center College of Design, and California Institute of Technology, have partnered together as the "Earthquake Country Alliance" to organize the Great Southern California ShakeOut, the largest earthquake drill in U.S. History with 5.2 million participants across Southern California.

Today at 10 a.m., citizens, schools, businesses, government agencies and community organizations across Southern California will participate in the drill, which is based on a hypothetical scenario of a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the San Andreas Fault that was designed over the past year by Dr. Lucy Jones of the U.S. Geological Survey and 300 scientists and engineers. In this simulation, the earthquake begins at Bombay Beach, California, northeast of the Salton Sea, and heads northwest along the San Andreas Fault at 2 miles per second. Two minutes after the quake begins, the fault will stop rupturing, but seismic waves will advance as far north as Bakersfield, Oxnard and Santa Barbara. In Los Angeles, the shaking could last 55 seconds and would be 50 times stronger than the destructive 1994 Northridge Earthquake, which lasted only 7 seconds. Jones and her team predict that the ensuing destruction would be massive, toppling 1,500 buildings, starting fires, and killing and injuring thousands. The report for this scenario was jointly published by the U.S. Geological Survey and the California Geological Survey and can be accessed here.

Participants in the drill have been signing up on the ShakeOut website for the past year, and organizers are pleased with the turnout, as they had hoped for at least 5 million registrants. Each participating community and agency has its own special events planned for the drill, ranging from school evacuations to hospital triage simulations to community meetings. Common to all of them is the 10 a.m. earthquake simulation, which will last for two minutes. At that time, participants are encouraged to perform the "Drop, Cover, and Hold On" procedure. To Drop, Cover and Hold On, people should drop to the ground, take cover under a sturdy desk or table, and hold onto it until the shaking stops. The purpose of this is to try not to move and immediately protect oneself, since earthquakes can be so violent that running or crawling will not be possible.

For individuals who cannot make it to a community event but would like to participate beyond the "Drop, Cover, and Hold On" exercise, the ShakeOut website offers other online resources, such as the USGS's computer generated simulation of the earthquake, the After Shock online social simulation, and the Beat the Quake interactive game. The After Shock simulation is an exciting program designed by the Art Center's Designmatters initiative and The Institute for the Future that can be accessed after the 10 a.m. drill is complete. Participants will receive daily missions for three weeks after the ShakeOut drill which will prompt them to think about the aftermath of an earthquake, and they will be able to submit their responses via e-mail, blog posts, photos, text messages and video.

The purpose of the entire drill and related activities is to make people aware of the consequences of a large magnitude earthquake and educate them about what they can do to prepare for it so that this disaster does not turn into a catastrophe. Experts from the Earthquake Country Alliance agree that people in many areas will have to survive without outside help for days, as first responders will be consumed with fire, search and rescue events. More gravely, they are predicting that water supplies might be out for months. In preparation for this type of disaster, individuals should know where their gas-shut off valves at home and work are, have a fire extinguisher in their home and office, have a sturdy pair of shoes and 3 or more days of food, water and medicine for everyone in their household, have a family plan ready so that all members know where to meet if separated, and have an out-of-state contact to relay information to so as not to tie up phone lines.

As part of their ShakeOut efforts, the City of Los Angeles is hosting the International Earthquake Conference, which takes place from November 12 – 14th with 400 policy makers, first responders and earthquake experts from 30 nations attending. The conference will include lectures and panel groups on earthquake risk management, critical lifeline facilities, disaster preparedness, land use planning, and disaster management technologies, along with visits to various earthquake demonstrations in Southern California.

In conjunction with ShakeOut, the Golden Guardian 2008 first responder exercise will center around the 7.8 magnitude quake scenario. Each year, the California Office of Homeland Security organizes a state-wide, state-sponsored exercise in order to coordinate the activities of city, county, state and federal first responders, volunteer organizations and government agencies in the event of a catastrophic natural disaster or terrorist attack. This year over 4,000 first responders in counties and cities from Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, Imperial and San Bernardino will participate. Join FDNNtv.com's Barbara Brooks tomorrow as she covers some of these activities.

For further coverage of the Great Southern California Shake Out, click here.